The End of Money: Why and How to invest in Lithium and what Gold at 5000 USD/oz will tell us? - Inflation, Inflation, Inflation. TNR.v, CZX.v, GRC.to, AMM.to, RM.v, LMR.v, SGC.v, NGQ.to, CUU.v, EPZ.to, KTN.v, GBN.v, BVA.v, BVG.v, BTT.v, ASM.v, MGN, RVM.to

CS. Nobody told us, when we will be there - but we are all going in that direction.

Expect the unexpected and new corrections will provide new Entry Points in these Bulls. All you have to do is to find them and ride the course with the discipline - it is the part which separates boys from the men and investors from their money.

As you have noticed, we have almost stopped  our preaching about Gold - now Jim Cramer is doing this job for us. We can concentrate on our investment themes and particular instruments to be in the right boat, when the tide will come.

Recent run in Gold reflects the public distrust for all Fiat currencies. US dollar will always have a particular focus here.

We have the very strong complications with FED engaged in QE in a situation, when Federal Reserve is as federal as Federal Express. In absence of Gold - as the base for the monetary system - with it's external disciple, we have a traders paradise, when Enron is auditing itself. Arthur Anderson has not saved the shareholders of Enron and collapsed with it's client - today in our monetary system nobody even pretends to be sane any more.

Last few weeks we are hearing a lot of voices about the currency war, when all governments are trying to debase their currencies again each other. So far they are all successful in driving Gold up against all Fiat currencies.

US Dollar will have it's own destiny here: General Bernanke is winning his war against deflation. US corp. With it's total obligations above 100 Trillion dollars will have to debase it currency not only against Gold on par with other Fiat currencies, but also against other fiat currencies. We will remind you the basic math about inflation economics and the value of Debt.

"7. China holding record amount of treasuries and US Dollar denominated assets is the interesting combination with idea of national security, but we do not bank on Crash - gradual collapse in US Dollar will do the trick: 7% inflation in the real terms will slash the debt by almost 50% within next eleven years."

Buyers of US Treasuries are at least suicidal now. This Bubble is popping in front of our eyes.

Deflationists just do not get it: inflation is the monetary process of expanding the monetary base. In absence of external discipline - like gold in a gold based monetary system - nothing and nobody prevents the FED to create money out of thin air and distribute it into the system. In the most extreme circumstances General Bernanke promised to use Choppers to bring it - if tomorrow every household in U.S. will receive a cheque for 1 million - what kind of deflation will we be talking about? Is it insane? Not in our place.

Actually, deflation camp already has their deflation unfolding: just divide prices of  every asset class for the last few years by gold price to nominate prices in gold terms - they are all in a steep decline.

It is not only our theory any more - FED chairman Mr Bernanke has openly demanded more inflation and other members of FED were talking about it extensively last few weeks.

Update Oct. 12, 2010

  In order to know where we are going, always keep your eyes on our friends across the pond - UK was ahead of U.S.  in banks bail out and announced QE - now it is ahead with looming inflation and stagnating growth:

Bloomberg: U.K. Inflation Topped 3% Limit for Seventh Month in September

Gold will be go much higher from here, it will not be the straight line, but every set back will provide an investment opportunity in Gold and Silver space. We will share with our thoughts and companies we like and you will be cautioned to make your own DD as usual.

Next stage will be fight for the resources and M&A activity at all stages of investing in Gold mining cycle. With rising Gold price and inflated paper Majors will shop for juniors to buy time and gold in the ground. Jim Puplava will be a very good narrator to all our travel maps and reports about our journey. With rising gold, price price of physical gold will become even more prohibitive, we do agree with Jim that people will start to buy gold mining shares again with their easy to run discount brokerage accounts.

With all this inflation unfolding we have another ground breaking, tectonic shift: Peak Oil multiplied by inflationary pressure on prices of all commodities. If gold at 5000 USD/oz will affect only very small part of our society - oil prices above 100 USD/barrel will affect everyone and can tear apart the canvas of our society. Here where Electric Cars and new oil - Lithium and REE are coming into the picture with it's new generational bull mega trend - Next Big Thing in action.

We did pretty good with "old and barbaric" in the Google age asset - Gold - we dare to put our money in the age of Twitter and Facebook on the future again and start to think in advance how all these kids are going to drive their kids to the soccer games.

Once or twice we already had "the feeling" - just a few times will be enough to make things right:

"Time when the prediction was made that Google could deep below 250 in a severe Bear market valuation passed in our memory as so distant and happy that it is almost not worth mentioning. But the call was done and was right on the money.



http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2008/07/google-goog-bear-case-contunued.html


Other observations could come into life with recent developments. Announcement about the new Head of Treasury fired the rally in the market. Yesterday all hope was lost: VIX made break up, DOW has violated Bearish Flag downwards and US Dollar almost broke up to upside. Today was the different story and first Gold start to rally and overtake very important resistances on the way to 800. HUI, GDX and all Goldies have followed in unison with gains up to 31% in Barrick Gold ABX. November, 2008"
 

"This is why we did not like to short the last leg down and preferred to accumulate Rally plays like China FXI, Zinc CZX.v, Zinc/Copper LUN.to, CUU.v, Grains HAU.to. Now the chances are that US Dollar will go finally down on fundamentals, markets will rally and then US Corp should prey that Oil will stay below 75, our Lithum ideas will be handy as well now. Commodities is the place to be for us again: base metals Juniors are sold into the ground - for China play and Gold and Silver for "Bet against Central Banks", it is a new fashion among Hedge Funds, when they are buying gold. March, 2009"



But back to the Lithium and how we are going to drive with gold at 5000:
 

"We have been proudly running Gold Bull for nearly ten years now: Gold first, than Majors and follow up on Junior side. We were always wondering about Future of Energy and have collected some great memories on Uranium Run, Solar and Water plays. Gold Bull has years to run, but we are searching constantly for new Macro trends - it is very interesting to find out what will be the next Bull which will come out of these rubbles in case we are right and Inflation will be the answer to the Deflation war scenario. It is time for Lithium to come into picture.

Lithium is the leveraged play on Peak Oil and rising Oil price with coming Inflation. Sector is very small and market is even more smaller - everything is ready for the parabolic move in case of supporting fundamentals.

Recent Oil Spill shows the real price for Oil and leaves no doubt for us that there will be no more cheap oil: offshore drilling is costly now, it will be even more costly later. Relatively cheap Oil is in the hands of state owned companies in not so friendly to U.S. places. Oil squeeze will come from diminishing production rates and rising Inflation. The move will be even more explosive than in the Gold market - in the end only minority of people is effected by the gold price even now, Oil is the underlining of all Western Energy Diet. It is not sustainable. Emerging markets are taking more and more share of world wide production, oil producing countries are spending more at home. If you account all cost to produce, deliver and protect Oil supply to U.S. corp the price is already above 150 USD/barrel."

'Peak Oil Is a Theory the Way Gravity Is a Theory,' ASPO-USA's Jim Baldauf

Peak Oil theory moves from status of almost conspiracy theory and into the official government reports:

"Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis

More on Peak Oil:

This year we have quite a few warnings already about Peak Oil from main stream economists, universities, US military and government agencies all around the world. The question now is not if, but when is it going to happen.

We have time still, but it is running out very fast. After a certain point in the oil price increase the only concern we are going to have about Electric Cars will be their availability on a mass scale to preserve our way of life and freedom."

In the last weeks we had a very important confirmation of returning risk appetite and liquidity coming into the junior mining sector. Most of our Summer 2010 Picks have been breaking to the upside already, finally reflecting the fundamentals and catching up with Gold, Silver, Copper and Zinc prices and Majors' valuations. M&A deals like in Potash, Gold, Zinc and Lithium to name a few, will drive this process further. Junior mining companies are holding resources, which majors are ready to buy to keep up their production rate - trading premium for time and risk developing them.

"As you know, we are going with our money where the supply chain begins in Lithium with Junior mining companies.

It's much more risky, but the reward is based on a very high leverage of exploration and development plays in these micro cap companies. If our investment thesis is wrong or we chose the wrong company, the end game will be brutal to our investment outcome - therefore you have to know what you are doing. Today we will discuss our lithium hit list below: all these companies are in the Byron Capital Lithium Index and we own these stocks or have owned them before. The game here is based on the combination of the rising price of underlining commodity (Lithium Bull this time), multiplied by the developments in this particular junior: exploration discoveries and resource definition with strategic partners involved and up to the M&A as it happened with Salares Lithium recently.

As usual, please do not forget that we do not provide any investment advise on this blog."

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Powered by Lithium: Nissan Leaf iAd announcement APPL, TNR.v, CZX.v, RM.v, TSLA, LIT, LIT.v, WLC.v, CLQ.v, ORE.ax, AVL.to, RES.v, LUN.to, FCX, RTP, SQM, FMC, ROC, BHP, NSANY

  Nissan Leaf and iPhone - they are both 100% electric and powered by lithium. EV and Steve Jobs - match made in heaven. We are waiting for iCar from Apple. As Steve Jobs has mentioned about Nissan Leaf iAd video: "It's amazing - fifteen seconds of video - how compelling it could be"

  "We are still waiting when Steve Jobs will get down to the real issue and save the world literally with EV iCar from Apple. Germans are not very emotional people, but their predictions about Peak Oil are very chilly. Nissan Leaf comes soon on the roads and we think that the idea will not be so far stretched after all."

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  We are still waiting when Steve Jobs will get down to the real issue and save the world literally with EV iCar from Apple. Germans are not very emotional people, but their predictions about Peak Oil are very chilly. Nissan Leaf comes soon on the roads and we think that the idea will not be so far stretched after all.

  "We expect consumers to shift - on a mass scale - from CVs to EVs, with proof that technology is viable and can provide the same utility but with a Better Experience. The Emotional Drive will be the driving force of this switch of consumer preferences.

  And here is where the almighty Steve Jobs and Apple can drive our hearts to open our wallets even during the recessions."

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Who will buy an Electric Car? What about iCar from Apple? AAPL, TNR.v, CZXv, RM.v, LIT, TSLA, LIT.v, LI.v, WLC.v, CLQ.v, HEV, AONE, GOOG, RIMM, IBM, GE, SQM, FMC,

 Will you buy an Electric Car?

  CS. Desperate times need desperate measures. After today's horrific existing home sales numbers and Charles Nenner's call for Dow at 5000, we cannot simply stand by. Our cash alone will not support the markets for the long time and even our ideas about saving the world can fade away in kerosene light of the writers crying about polluting electric cars and that "nobody will buy them anyway."

  Obama calls for action, but the financial situation of the state is a hair breadth's away  from desperate. The middle-class, the backbone of our society, barely survives during this recession. FED will not be able to hold the economy for long, with oil above 150 USD/barrel: Twitter, Google and iPhone with iPad are only very nice after a good breakfast and when you can look forward to lunch. Will we have to roll back into our cave of Gold and Silver?

  There is only one way to bring Electric Cars in a mass market fashion, beat the Deflation scare and start a new industrial revolution in U.S.: we still have a chance to stay at least on par with China, by making the Electric Car cool. Time for a letter to Steve Jobs.

  There are a lot of predictions about how many people will consider buying an Electric Car. As we have mentioned numerous times, nobody knows for sure about the future for our Next Big Thing, but we think that we know the answer to how to make the adoption rate for Electric Cars much closer to the one of mobile phones or iPads, rather than the one of washing machines. All we need to do is ask Mr. Jobs to make an Electric iCar.

  "The car is the second largest purchase after the house for the middle-class. It is never really an investment in contrast to the house (according to the logic before the Crash - a house was an investment). Electric cars allow to sell the second biggest item in the household "second time". Family gets an instant cash flow adjustment with electric cars economics: 2.5 cent cost per mile against 12 cents in conventional vehicle (CV). The government gets the opportuinity to send money to consumers to fight the Deflation Death Spiral and take it away into the value food chain, hopefully belonging to the domestic production cycle.
  The way of doing it - stimulus for production in order to bring prices down, like today, and direct Tax Rebates on purchases of EVs - which are already in place. With the GM Volt battery strategy, the price for EVs will quickly reach the same level as for a CV, and in this situation the Electric Car could become an investment in the household balance sheet as it will be producing "an alternative income" relative to cost of ownership of CV. Here is our "adjusted" cash flow.  Third, why do we think it could happen at all? About it Obama, here."

    Apple, with its unique proposition of lifestyle social-status marketing products, with almost perfect utility function, has the ability to dramatically change the way how we consume mobility. It is time for a real change and we all have an opportunity to capitalise on this dramatic technological shift. We are inviting Steve Jobs to the Green Mobility Revolution, transformation technology and disruption in the huge market place.

 The ideal market situation for the new disruptive technology to create a lifetime investing opportunity is when the Demand for product or service is already there and you are able to deliver it in a new way, which will be more appealing to Existing consumers of this product or service. You have a dramatic shift in consumer preference and you are gaining a market share in a tidal wave fashion by shifting consumers from existing providers to the new product or service place. You do not have to teach the market and prove that they need this product - you just need to prove that the new technology you are putting in place is viable to deliver the Better Experience.


 We have always loved our music. Sony made a Revolution in the way we consumed music with its Walkman - we were able to take our music with us as we went. CDs made the quality of music more appealing and record companies sold us our music one more time.

  Steeve Jobs made another Revolution by providing the means to consume what we exactly want with iTunes and means to Store and Retrieve All Our Music as we go - in iPod. He sold us the music we already had and we were happy to buy it. He brought us a new Experience of how we consume the same music: it is convenient, easy, searchable, high quality and with us - all of it. We have moved in droves to the new source of joy.

 

  Apple has managed an even more difficult trick with mobile phone: the iPhone has stormed the market without a single unique function not available on the market at that time. The key is the ultimate design and functionality which became the marketing product indicating your social status. And our music is again with us here. Only those who remember the Palm can understand our joy here. Will our children be taking Electric Cars for granted as well one day?

  For the first time we have all we need under our fingertips with the iPad. It already changed the way we consume newspapers, books, magazines and access the web. Applications are providing a relatively cheap, focused software for the individual's particular need. We must admit that we still have to buy an App - so far everything we use is free. Will it make Windows obsolete one day?

  With Electric Cars, all market estimations that we saw so far (apart from the quote from Warren Buffett) looks like a drop in the bucket at a time. Will it be 2%, 5% or 10% claimed by Nissan in 2020? It's not a Revolution - it is like a tea party. We dare to differ and think that Electric Cars will provide to us a new Experience how we consume Mobility: energy efficient, environment friendly and cheaper with all cost accounted. And yes - they will sell us our cars one more time, this time in an Electric version.

 

  Is it bad? No, not at all if you will be investing in Electric Cars value chain. Even if you not, we will all gain from it more than from iPods - after all we have never heard about somebody being killed by CD, but those who still do not believe that cars pollute and kill our environment - therefore us - can try to breathe from an exhaust pipe for a while to be sure.

  We expect consumers to shift - on a mass scale - from CVs to EVs, with proof that technology is viable and can provide the same utility but with a Better Experience. The Emotional Drive will be the driving force of this switch of consumer preferences.

  And here is where the almighty Steve Jobs and Apple can drive our hearts to open our wallets even during the recessions. Everything is already produced by OEMs anyway: we need  Apple just to make it cool to drive an iCar, to make the iCar design and its functionality with Steve Job's signature attention to the detail. All particular auto functionality could be outsourced inside US: batteries, software, power train and auto safety. Something like J/V with established automaker will do the trick in order to achieve mass production. We think that automakers will be standing in line just to be involved.

  Is this just confined to our dreams? We're not so sure: we have already found a few rumours about an iCar and even this picture below. We will appreciate if somebody can drop a line with any information on the iCar, its potential design or Steve Jobs' mobile number or email.

From our followers on Twitter:

Could an Apple iCar be down the road?

Maybe EV iCar is already in the making and our idea about Electric Car from Apple it is not so stretched after all?

Should Apple Get Into the Car Business?

Volkswagen and Apple discuss possible "iCar" project

 iPod, iPhone…iCar? What’s Next for Apple?

 

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